An Insight into the Simplified RP Transmission Network, Concise Baseline and SIR Models for Simulating the Transmissibility of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak

Abstract

The World Health Organization has reported about a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) (a virus of Wuhan, China pneumonia). The present investigation explores the transmissibility of the novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) using some suitable mathematical models such as (a) a simplified Bats-Hosts-Reservoir (Wuhan Seafood Market)-People (BHRP) transmission network model useful in mapping the spread of the novel COVID-19 from its source (may be bats) to humans, (b) a concise baseline model based on individual behavioral response and control measures taken to control the transmission of the novel COVID-19 and (c) an exponential and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to predict the transmission of the pandemic on day-to-day basis. The basic Reproduction number (R₀) (for the next generation matrix) was derived to estimate the transmission of the novel COVID-19 using the simplified BHRP transmission network model. The logic estimates that around 2.30 persons could be affected by the reservoir and around 3.58 persons could be affected by the community (individual person to community population). On the other hand, the concise model based on real-time time-dependent data, such as day-to-day number of tests, appreciates the initiatives (control measures) of the Chinese government to break the transmission chain of the pandemic in the capital city of Hubei province. Furthermore, the basic Reproduction number (R₀) for India is reviewed to be in the range between 1.4 and 3.9 using the classical SIR model and thus, the transmission rate is the same as that of California and Washington. The review also outlines the epidemiological SIR model (based on real-time time-dependent data) which estimates about the equilibrium stage of the pandemic by the last week of May, 2020. The predictions of the age-structured epidemiological SIR model could be more accurate if data such as day-to-day number of tests are correctly fed during evaluation of the results. The present investigation emphasizes over the need of effective implementation of mitigatory strategies such as social distancing to prevent the transmission of the SARS-CoV2 outbreak in India.