Trends and Multifractal Analyses of Precipitation Data from Shandong Peninsula, China

Abstract

Problem statement: Water shortage is a very serious problem in Shandong Peninsula, which is one of the most rapidly developed zone in China. As the major source of water supply is in this area, precipitation is crucial to sustainable development in Shandong Peninsula. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the trend and characteristics of precipitation during the last 4 decades. Approach: The data, both monthly and annual precipitation, were collected from six gauge stations. Both classical statistical and nonlinear analyses for time series analysis were performed. Results: First, it was found that the trend of precipitation in this area was decreasing. Second, the statistical analyses showed that there were two precipitation regimes and the turning point was around 1980. This time is in line with that about climate change in some recent references. Third, the complexity of precipitation time series was also analyzed by nonlinear (multifractal) approach. Frequency analysis showed that the dominant periods of Fractal oscillations were consistent with that obtained in some previous studies. Conclusion/Recommendations: The decreasing trend would be considered in future water resource management. Moreover, the findings of this study are of interest from the perspective of climate change and deserve more research study in the future.